Rising Tensions Between the US, Israel and Iran Raise Fears of Wider Instability

Zuzana Moscakova, Chief Reporter         Vanesa Zackova, Political Editor

Tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States have been rising for years. The three countries are not formally at war, but their relationship remains hostile and unstable. Occasional military strikes, clashes involving allied groups and stalled diplomatic efforts continue to keep the region on edge.

At the centre of the tension is Iran’s nuclear programme. Israel has repeatedly stated that it will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. Iranian leaders insist their nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes, such as energy production. However, Israel, the United States and several European countries remain unconvinced.

In 2015, an international agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed. The deal limited Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. In 2018, the United States withdrew from the agreement. Since then, attempts to restore the deal have struggled, and Iran has expanded aspects of its nuclear programme beyond the original limits, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The conflict between Israel and Iran rarely involves direct battles between their armed forces. Instead, analysts often describe it as a “shadow war,” involving suspected cyberattacks, covert missions and airstrikes carried out beyond each country’s borders. For instance, Israel has conducted numerous airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian military positions and weapons shipments believed to be destined for the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Iran strongly condemns these actions and accuses Israel of aggression.

The United States also plays a key role in the broader situation. It maintains military forces in the Gulf region and has launched strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria. US officials typically describe these operations as defensive responses to attacks on American personnel or facilities. Hezbollah has also contributed to regional tensions, exchanging fire with Israel across the Lebanon border during periods of heightened conflict. Although these flare-ups can be intense, they have so far stopped short of a full-scale war.

International organisations are closely monitoring developments. The United Nations frequently calls for restraint when violence escalates, while European governments continue to urge all sides to avoid further confrontation and return to diplomacy. Many leaders fear that even a minor incident could spark a much wider conflict.

Energy markets are especially sensitive to instability in the region. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply travels. In the past, incidents involving oil tankers and military patrols in this area have quickly influenced global oil prices. Although shipping continues, the waterway remains a potential flashpoint.

Despite harsh rhetoric and periodic military incidents, there is currently no large-scale war between Iran, Israel and the United States. Most confrontations remain limited and indirect, often involving allied groups rather than direct clashes between the three nations.

Experts caution that the greatest risk may not be a deliberate war, but an accident or miscalculation. A single strike causing heavy casualties could trigger a chain reaction that becomes difficult to contain. For now, diplomacy, military deterrence and cautious decision-making are maintaining a fragile balance in the region.

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