The 2025 local elections and why they matter

By

Billy Merrin, Columnist

Tomorrow, Thursday May 1st, voters across different counties will head to the polls to elect county, unitary, and metropolitan councils. However, not all areas will go to the polls due to the government's plans to change devolved local authorities. There are also six mayoral elections in counties such as Cambridgeshire and Lincolnshire.

But what does this mean for the four largest parties? What are the results they are hoping for? And how could this affect them in the years going into the next general election?


To start with, let's look at the polls. More in Common polling suggests that between 25th and 27th April, Reform and Labour are tied on 24%, with Conservatives trailing by one point at 23% and the Liberal Democrats at 15%. This would suggest that Reform, Labour and the Conservatives would win the most council seats, however, this may not be true.

A large factor could be the turnout, the turnout dropped to 59.8% at the 2024 general election and could imply that voters are just not that bothered anymore and may not vote at the local elections. This could be beneficial for parties like the Lib Dems or the Greens, trying to win over disenfranchised voters; however, the bigger parties would be just as keen to win back their votes.

But what does this election mean for the four parties? Well, out of the 23 councils, the Conservatives currently hold 996 seats, Labour on 287 and the Lib Dems on 207. Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, has set her boundaries for the election against the horrific defeat the Conservatives received in 2024, suggesting that they would "do a bit better" than in the last election. 



Labour, on the other hand, would be looking to hopefully have a strong mid-term election that would give a stronger mandate to their current administration since their approval ratings have dropped in the polls since their landslide victory in July. The Runcorn by-election, also happening tomorrow, is causing concerns for Labour as their polling in the constituency dropped from 53% to the mid-thirties.

Reform is polling closest to Labour in this by-election and is hoping to steal a seat in parliament from Labour, whom they claim to be in opposition to. All of Reform's talk over recent months, it would seem to be a great defeat of their progress not to win many council seats and perhaps even some councils.

The liberal Democrats have a more ambiguous position; they had a great general election result in the summer, gained roughly seventy seats in parliament, mainly from voters turned away from bigger parties. They will be looking to do the same tomorrow and win votes that the big parties may lose.

The main takeaway from these elections is that, depending on the results, it will make the parties rethink strategy and policy going into the next general election, likely to happen in four years time.













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